LINKAGES BETWEEN PROPERTY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY
JAŠOVÁ, Emilie. LINKAGES BETWEEN PROPERTY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY. ACTA VŠFS. Praha, 2023. |
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Basic information | |
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Original name | LINKAGES BETWEEN PROPERTY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY |
Name in Czech | VAZBA MEZI CENAMI NEMOVITOSTÍ A MAKROEKONOMICKÝMI DETERMINANTY: DŮKAZY Z NĚMECKA |
Name (in English) | LINKAGES BETWEEN PROPERTY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY |
Authors | JAŠOVÁ, Emilie. |
Edition | 2023. |
Other information | |
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Type of outcome | Review |
Confidentiality degree | is not subject to a state or trade secret |
Organization unit | University of Finance and Administration |
Keywords (in Czech) | Trhy s nemovitostmi, poptávka po bydlení, obchodní výkyvy |
Keywords in English | Real Estate Markets, Housing Demand, Business Fluctuations |
Tags | AR 2023-2024 |
Changed by | Changed by: Bc. Jan Peterec, učo 24999. Changed: 23/1/2024 13:58. |
Abstract |
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The global financial and economic crisis has led to significant efforts to better integrate property price channels into macroeconomic models and to improve models. This paper deals with property prices in Germany and their determinants in the period Q1 2000 - Q4 2022. Since then, property prices in Germany have risen considerably. The models regularly use indicators that are aligned with the specificities of property, but less macroeconomic determinants. From economic models, theoretical modes of action between macroeconomic determinants and property prices are generally known. Using Germany as an example, however, there are only limited studies on the direct influences of economic determinants. In the context of a regression analysis, this paper examines the relationship between the selected variables that directly drive house prices. On the one hand the results confirm a positive relationship between property prices and real GDP. On the other hand, a negative correlation was found for real short-term interest rates and inflation. In this study, no significant relationships were found between house prices and unemployment rate and long-term interest rates, despite a culture of long-term fixed interest rates in Germany. |
Abstract (in Czech) |
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Globální finanční a ekonomická krize vedla ke značnému úsilí o lepší integraci cenových kanálů nemovitostí do makroekonomických modelů a o zlepšení modelů. Tento příspěvek se zabývá cenami nemovitostí v Německu a jejich determinanty v období Q1 2000 - Q4 2022. Od té doby ceny nemovitostí v Německu značně vzrostly. Modely pravidelně používají ukazatele, které jsou v souladu se specifiky majetku, ale méně makroekonomickými determinantami. Z ekonomických modelů jsou obecně známy teoretické způsoby působení mezi makroekonomickými determinantami a cenami nemovitostí. Na příkladu Německa však existují pouze omezené studie o přímých vlivech ekonomických determinantů. V kontextu regresní analýzy tento článek zkoumá vztah mezi vybranými proměnnými, které přímo ovlivňují ceny nemovitostí. Výsledky na jedné straně potvrzují pozitivní vztah mezi cenami nemovitostí a reálným HDP. Na druhé straně byla zjištěna negativní korelace u reálných krátkodobých úrokových sazeb a inflace. V této studii nebyl nalezen žádný významný vztah mezi cenami nemovitostí a mírou nezaměstnanosti a dlouhodobými úrokovými sazbami, a to navzdory kultuře dlouhodobých fixních úrokových sazeb v Německu. |
Abstract (in English) |
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The global financial and economic crisis has led to significant efforts to better integrate property price channels into macroeconomic models and to improve models. This paper deals with property prices in Germany and their determinants in the period Q1 2000 - Q4 2022. Since then, property prices in Germany have risen considerably. The models regularly use indicators that are aligned with the specificities of property, but less macroeconomic determinants. From economic models, theoretical modes of action between macroeconomic determinants and property prices are generally known. Using Germany as an example, however, there are only limited studies on the direct influences of economic determinants. In the context of a regression analysis, this paper examines the relationship between the selected variables that directly drive house prices. On the one hand the results confirm a positive relationship between property prices and real GDP. On the other hand, a negative correlation was found for real short-term interest rates and inflation. In this study, no significant relationships were found between house prices and unemployment rate and long-term interest rates, despite a culture of long-term fixed interest rates in Germany. |
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