J 2025

On the Return Persistence of Index and Nonindex Mutual Funds

ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří

Basic information

Original name

On the Return Persistence of Index and Nonindex Mutual Funds

Name in Czech

K persistenci výnosů indexových a neindexových podílových fondů

Authors

ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří

Edition

The Journal of Beta Investment Strategies, New York, Portfolio Management Research, 2025, 2771-6511

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Article in a journal

Field of Study

50206 Finance

Country of publisher

United States of America

Confidentiality degree

is not subject to a state or trade secret

References:

Organization unit

University of Finance and Administration

Keywords (in Czech)

Podílové fondy, Akciové trhy, Aktivní správa, Pasivní správa, Persistence výnosů

Keywords in English

Mutual funds; Equity markets; Active management; Passive management; Returns persistence

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Changed: 17/10/2025 07:17, Bc. Jan Peterec

Abstract

In the original language

This article deals with investment decision-making in the environment of the semi-persistent returns of active and passive funds. The author constructs a theoretical model of portfolio allocation between these two groups based on short- and long-term past returns and confirms its validity with a simulation based on a sample of US large-cap equity funds from 1990–2021. The analysis shows that short-term persistence in fund returns is limited and long-term performance is a significantly better predictor of future returns. It also points to a higher prevalence of passive instruments in long-term portfolios. This phenomenon is consistent across all types of time periods. Finally, the author proposes a return continuity indicator (RCI) as a simple tool to assess the persistence of (excess) return among actively managed funds.

In Czech

This article deals with investment decision-making in the environment of the semi-persistent returns of active and passive funds. The author constructs a theoretical model of portfolio allocation between these two groups based on short- and long-term past returns and confirms its validity with a simulation based on a sample of US large-cap equity funds from 1990–2021. The analysis shows that short-term persistence in fund returns is limited and long-term performance is a significantly better predictor of future returns. It also points to a higher prevalence of passive instruments in long-term portfolios. This phenomenon is consistent across all types of time periods. Finally, the author proposes a return continuity indicator (RCI) as a simple tool to assess the persistence of (excess) return among actively managed funds.