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@article{5697, author = {Šindelář, Jiří and Budinský, Petr}, article_location = {Bratislava}, article_number = {9}, keywords = {GDP; forecasting; forecast evaluation; data vintages}, language = {eng}, issn = {0013-3035}, journal = {Ekonomický časopis}, note = {AR 2016/2017 - odesláno do RIV. (duben 2017)}, title = {Evaluation of GDP Growth Forecasts:Does Using Different Data Vintages Matter?}, volume = {64}, year = {2016} }
TY - JOUR ID - 5697 AU - Šindelář, Jiří - Budinský, Petr PY - 2016 TI - Evaluation of GDP Growth Forecasts:Does Using Different Data Vintages Matter? JF - Ekonomický časopis VL - 64 IS - 9 SP - 827-846 EP - 827-846 PB - Ústav ekonomickej teórie SAV SN - 00133035 N1 - AR 2016/2017 - odesláno do RIV. (duben 2017) KW - GDP KW - forecasting KW - forecast evaluation KW - data vintages N2 - This paper deals with effect of different real-time data vintages (recent and first outturn) on accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts produced by main Czech and Slovak public authorities (ministries of finance, central banks). Firstly, variation in the real-time data itself was analysed, along with of multidimensional forecasting error evaluation (MAE, RMSE, MASE measures). Then, battery of statistical tests was applied in order to determine, whether the switch from first to recent real-time data affects forecasts´ accuracy in a significant manner (Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, Sign test) and whether it affects relative accuracy between individual institutions (Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney U test). Our results show that while the change in underlying data affects forecasting accuracy in our sample (using recent data lead to higher errors), the changes were neither found statistically significant in strong majority of surveyed cases, nor affected the relative accuracy of involved institutions. ER -
ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří a Petr BUDINSKÝ. Evaluation of GDP Growth Forecasts:Does Using Different Data Vintages Matter? \textit{Ekonomický časopis}. Bratislava: Ústav ekonomickej teórie SAV, roč.~64, č.~9, s.~827-846. ISSN~0013-3035. 2016.
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