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@article{9206, author = {Šindelář, Jiří and Budinský, Petr}, article_location = {Prague}, article_number = {3}, keywords = {Central bank; Inflation forecasting; Inflation targeting; Forecasting error}, language = {eng}, issn = {0322-788X}, journal = {Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal}, title = {Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe}, url = {https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm}, volume = {101}, year = {2021} }
TY - JOUR ID - 9206 AU - Šindelář, Jiří - Budinský, Petr PY - 2021 TI - Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe JF - Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal VL - 101 IS - 3 SP - 259-267 EP - 259-267 PB - Český statistický úřad SN - 0322788X KW - Central bank KW - Inflation forecasting KW - Inflation targeting KW - Forecasting error UR - https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/statistika-statistics-and-economy-journal-ptl91ua1gm N2 - This paper deals with inflation forecasting and targeting performance of selected Central and Eastern-European central banks. Using battery of absolute and scaled forecasting errors along with significance tests, we have evaluated inflation predictions on the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon (14–16 months), as well as adherence to long-term inflation targets. Out of the evaluated Czech, Hungarian and Polish central banks, complemented by the European Central Bank for comparison, it was found, that even though the bank´s performance improved during the last decade, notably with the forecasting component, some issues are still present. These are mostly connected to the inflation targeting mechanism, which was found to contain systemic bias in the case of the Czech national bank, as well as failing in comparison with the naïve benchmark in the case of the European Central Bank. Both outcomes pave the way for further investigation in a wider economical context. ER -
ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří a Petr BUDINSKÝ. Inflation Forecasting and Targeting: Experience from Central Europe. \textit{Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal}. Prague: Český statistický úřad, roč.~101, č.~3, s.~259-267. ISSN~0322-788X. 2021.
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