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@article{9281, author = {Šindelář, Jiří}, article_location = {Ostrava}, article_number = {24}, keywords = {accuracy measures; Czech National Bank; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; GDP forecasting; Ministry of Finance; subjective adjustments}, language = {eng}, issn = {1212-3951}, journal = {Ekonomická revue – Central European Review of Economic Issues}, title = {Final look at GDP forecasting by Czech institutions}, url = {https://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/aktualni-cislo/archiv/}, volume = {2021}, year = {2021} }
TY - JOUR ID - 9281 AU - Šindelář, Jiří PY - 2021 TI - Final look at GDP forecasting by Czech institutions JF - Ekonomická revue – Central European Review of Economic Issues VL - 2021 IS - 24 SP - 6-12 EP - 6-12 PB - VŠB-Technická univerzita Ostrava, Ekonomická fakulta SN - 12123951 KW - accuracy measures KW - Czech National Bank KW - dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model KW - GDP forecasting KW - Ministry of Finance KW - subjective adjustments UR - https://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/aktualni-cislo/archiv/ N2 - This paper deals with the evaluation of Czech institutions’ (the Ministry of Finance and the Czech National Bank) real GDP growth forecasting performance between 1995 and 2015. Contrary to the author’s previous papers on this topic, the set-up was altered, in order to assess an 18-month-long annual prediction and set a third estimate as the real-time data input. Using a battery of three error measures (MAE, RMSE, MASE) augmented by the Wilcoxon and Kruskal–Wallis tests, we have found that the MF and the CNB forecasts do not contain a systemic bias. Also, despite some isolated performance deficiencies (i.e. during the recession periods), the accuracy of forecasts prepared by both the MF and the CNB does not differ significantly from the benchmark forecasts of international institutions. Our outcomes hence correspond with the results of previous studies, implying that the changed data set-up does not affect the predictive accuracy of both institutions ER -
ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří. Final look at GDP forecasting by Czech institutions. \textit{Ekonomická revue – Central European Review of Economic Issues}. Ostrava: VŠB-Technická univerzita Ostrava, Ekonomická fakulta, 2021, vol.~2021, No~24, p.~6-12. ISSN~1212-3951.
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