Přehled o publikaci

The study situates the Czech energy transition within the European and global framework, particularly the European Green Deal, RED III, and REPowerEU policies, and highlights the current domestic baseline with a 18.6% share of renewable energy sources in gross final consumption in 2023, as well as limitations arising from infrastructure, complex permitting procedures, and political uncertainty. The paper aims to outline scenarios for the development of renewable energy in the Czech Republic by 2040 and to identify key leverage points—such as political measures, grid modernization, investment, and social acceptance—that will shape strategic decisions of both the public and private sectors. The authors employ a combination of qualitative foresight, expert synthesis, and scenario modelling with elements of DMDU, complemented by case-based narratives focusing on municipalities, companies, and households. The result is three consistent scenarios that illustrate the range of possible developments in the share of renewables and electricity production by 2040: the stable acceleration scenario, the gradual adaptation scenario, and the inertia structure scenario. These scenarios provide a basis for decision-making by the state, municipalities, and investors, while also indicating impacts on employment, regional inequalities, and energy poverty, thereby supporting the targeting of just transition policies. The authors emphasize as key priorities the modernization and digitalization of energy grids, the development of storage and aggregation of flexibility, acceleration and streamlining of permitting processes, stable and predictable financing, strengthening of community energy through legislative changes, and systematic monitoring of goal achievement. The value of the paper lies in linking macro-level scenarios with concrete case-based visions and in offering an integrated perspective on the technical, economic, and socio-institutional factors of the Czech energy transition.