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@article{7971, author = {Šindelář, Jiří}, article_location = {London}, article_number = {3-4}, keywords = {Financial sales; Sales forecasting; Quantitative forecasting; Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE); Linear model with mixed effects}, language = {eng}, issn = {1363-0539}, journal = {Journal of Financial Services Marketing}, title = {Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41264-019-00068-3}, volume = {24}, year = {2019} }
TY - JOUR ID - 7971 AU - Šindelář, Jiří PY - 2019 TI - Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods JF - Journal of Financial Services Marketing VL - 24 IS - 3-4 SP - 69-80 EP - 69-80 PB - Palgrave Macmillan SN - 13630539 KW - Financial sales KW - Sales forecasting KW - Quantitative forecasting KW - Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) KW - Linear model with mixed effects UR - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41264-019-00068-3 L2 - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41264-019-00068-3 N2 - This paper deals with the issue of forecastability of sales activities of independent financial advisers (agents). Employing the most common quantitative methods on a diverse sample of timelines from multiple advisory companies, we have found that under most settings, these methods offer sub-par performance with high relative errors and no statistical differences between them. When a more granular approach is applied (reflecting sales unit size), ARIMA and the simple moving average emerge as significantly less accurate. This outcome is true for all sales units regardless of their size, when relative error is concerned. Thus, our analysis confirms the difficult forecastability of financial sales, speaking against the utilisation of more sophisticated forecasting methods, which mostly fail when compared to their much simpler and less costly counterparts. ER -
ŠINDELÁŘ, Jiří. Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods. \textit{Journal of Financial Services Marketing}. London: Palgrave Macmillan, roč.~24, 3-4, s.~69-80. ISSN~1363-0539. 2019.
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